analyze_media_age.py claimed age was ruled out because an image from
2025-11 was saved while one from 2026-08 was not. That conclusion does not
follow. "Saved" means some earlier run downloaded it, not that ChatGPT
still holds it — an image captured in June looks saved forever after, even
if it died in July. A month with no losses shows the exports were timely,
not that the assets survived.
- probe_survival_by_month.py: sample images already on disk, grouped by
their conversation's month, and ask /files/{id} whether each still
exists today. Old months still 200 → no expiry, and cadence did not save
them. Old months now 404 → uploads do expire and cadence is the whole
ballgame.
- analyze_media_age.py: stop asserting the unsupported verdict; say what
the number does and does not show, and point at the probe.
One signal there is immune to the confound and survives: 2026-07-09 kept
38 images and lost 12. Same conversation, same day, opposite outcomes —
no retention policy does that, so at least part of this is per-asset.
"Do I have to export within N days?" is answerable from the exports
already on disk — the renderer records every image's outcome inline
( when saved, a placeholder when not) and the
conversation date is in the filename. Group by month and source and the
hypotheses separate: a clean old/new cutoff means expiry, user_upload
dying at an age model_generated survives means the source matters, and
losses scattered through months that otherwise downloaded fine means
neither.
Offline, no token, no API calls.
The improved error reporting landed, and the answer it produced is
{"detail":"Forbidden"} — generic, no reason. The cause has to be narrowed
by experiment instead, so collect the experiments in one script:
- classify the failed assets offline from the exported placeholders
(user_upload vs model_generated) — no API call needed
- probe a known-good asset in the same session as a control, to rule the
session in or out
- retry the 403 with ChatGPT-Account-Id, which the exporter never sends
and which workspace-scoped resources can require
- compare /files/{id} against /files/{id}/download
Temporary: delete once the cause is known, or fold into `doctor` if the
check earns a permanent home.
JesseMarkowitz