Replace clustering with a catalogue, and hand-write the references to judge it against

The pipeline's embed-and-cluster step is dead, and this commit holds both the
evidence for that and the step proposed to replace it.

Predicaments. Scenes are re-described as "what the person is up against", with
no names, jobs or places, then embedded and clustered (redescribe.py,
topic_words.py, topic_share.py). The pilot chose qwen3:14b over 3b by reading
both side by side. Two defects the pilot exposed are fixed: split.py missed
titles in quotes and a contents subtitle after a dash, so three stories had been
merged into their neighbours, and strip_names.py read New York place names as
people. The corrected corpus is probe/v2 (97 stories, 839 scenes);
carry_summaries.py reuses the 829 unchanged v1 summaries. Topic share fell from
20% to 13% at k=60, short of the pre-registered 10%.

Hand references. Three corpora were read scene by scene and written up by hand,
under the same prompt rules the local models get, as a baseline to judge them
against: O. Henry (probe/v2/claude, 839 scenes, 20 situations), Wharton's
Descent of Man (probe/wharton, 262 scenes, 16 groups) and Jacobs's The Lady of
the Barge (probe/jacobs, 157 scenes, 19 groups). Each has its own README and a
readable page. No inference was used for any of them.

Catalogue. probe/catalogue maps every hand group in the three references onto 36
situation entries, with an answer key per corpus and one recurrence rule applied
to all three. classify.py assigns a scene one entry or none, leave-one-corpus-
out; score.py checks it against the key, with a self-test on random labels.

Why clustering is out: hand-written predicaments, embedded and clustered exactly
as the model's were, agree with the hand grouping at ARI 0.05 — no better than
the 14B text's 0.07. Better rewriting cannot rescue it. Embeddings cannot even
shortlist: the hand label is the nearest entry 13% of the time and in the top 8
half the time.

The classification runs are not here. The dev and test runs are pre-registered
in probe/catalogue/README.md with the bar set beforehand, and are blocked on the
inference host, whose GPU has fallen off the PCIe bus three times. The 30-scene
partial output in out/ is not a result.

Review page. The situation review is now a browser page rather than JSON edited
by hand (review_page.py, review_page_logic.cjs with Node tests, format schema
v2). It has never been rendered in a real browser.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014BygvsUXV9eU6oHkTCkKZ1

tools/story-to-pack/probe/jacobs/claude/batches/s00.json

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+[
+ {
+  "chunk": 0,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "A skipper waiting up for his late-returning mate and brother-in-law has just lost a shouted argument with a neighbouring crew; the mate arrives and answers his rebuke with cheek.",
+  "predicament": "Someone waiting up for a relative who comes in late wants to reproach him, and gets cheek back."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 1,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The mate tells the skipper he has invited his sweetheart on the voyage without asking; the skipper is appalled and asks what his wife will say.",
+  "predicament": "A man learns a relative has promised a stranger his hospitality without asking, and fears what his spouse will say."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 2,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The skipper tries to refuse the young woman passage but cannot bring himself to say so, and ends up eating supper with the couple.",
+  "predicament": "A man who wants to turn an unwelcome guest away cannot find the nerve to say it."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 3,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The girl balks at her cramped quarters but stays; the skipper warns that his wife will blame him, and the mate says his sister can mind her own business.",
+  "predicament": "A man who has let something happen under his roof fears his spouse will hold him responsible for it."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 4,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The skipper insists on chaperoning the girl at meals himself, leaving the mate to steer and eat cold leftovers while she laughs at the skipper's stories.",
+  "predicament": "A young man who brought the person he is courting along is pushed aside by an older man who takes charge of her."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 5,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "Jealous, the mate hints at the skipper's wife, is mocked by the pair, is rude to the girl, and is sent away.",
+  "predicament": "A jealous suitor tries to put his rival in his place, and only makes himself look childish."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 6,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The girl snubs the mate as 'only the mate'; he turns the tables by threatening to let the skipper explain her presence to his wife alone.",
+  "predicament": "A spurned man realises he holds something over the rival who humiliated him, and decides to use it."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 7,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The mate refuses to back the skipper's story; the skipper hides the girl below as they arrive to find his wife waiting on the quay.",
+  "predicament": "A man hiding an innocent but compromising secret is met by his spouse, while the one person who could clear him refuses to."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 8,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The mate pulls meaningful faces behind the skipper's back until the wife grows suspicious; the skipper invents a toothache and tries to steer her away.",
+  "predicament": "A man tries to hurry his spouse away from a secret while someone signals behind his back that something is up."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 9,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The wife stamps her foot, the hidden girl appears, and the mate lets his brother-in-law take the blame while pretending to shield him.",
+  "predicament": "A man caught with an innocent secret is disowned by the one person who could explain it."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 10,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The wife abuses the girl, knocks her purse into the water, and orders her off; the mate, now remorseful, takes responsibility and defends her.",
+  "predicament": "A man whose spite has got an innocent person abused must decide whether to own up and defend her."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 11,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The mate dives repeatedly for the purse to win the girl back; she begs him to come out but refuses to make up.",
+  "predicament": "A man tries to win back someone he wronged with a dangerous public show of devotion."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 12,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The mate fakes drowning; the skipper rescues him, sees him wink while the girl kisses him, and the wife boxes his ears.",
+  "predicament": "A man pretends to be in danger to win sympathy, and the one who saved him sees through it."
+ },
+ {
+  "chunk": 13,
+  "story": 0,
+  "summary": "The wife takes the girl home to breakfast, leaving both men soaked, while the skipper fends off the mate's apologies with a boathook.",
+  "predicament": "Two men who quarrelled over a woman are both left out in the cold by the women they wronged."
+ }
+]