Replace clustering with a catalogue, and hand-write the references to judge it against

The pipeline's embed-and-cluster step is dead, and this commit holds both the
evidence for that and the step proposed to replace it.

Predicaments. Scenes are re-described as "what the person is up against", with
no names, jobs or places, then embedded and clustered (redescribe.py,
topic_words.py, topic_share.py). The pilot chose qwen3:14b over 3b by reading
both side by side. Two defects the pilot exposed are fixed: split.py missed
titles in quotes and a contents subtitle after a dash, so three stories had been
merged into their neighbours, and strip_names.py read New York place names as
people. The corrected corpus is probe/v2 (97 stories, 839 scenes);
carry_summaries.py reuses the 829 unchanged v1 summaries. Topic share fell from
20% to 13% at k=60, short of the pre-registered 10%.

Hand references. Three corpora were read scene by scene and written up by hand,
under the same prompt rules the local models get, as a baseline to judge them
against: O. Henry (probe/v2/claude, 839 scenes, 20 situations), Wharton's
Descent of Man (probe/wharton, 262 scenes, 16 groups) and Jacobs's The Lady of
the Barge (probe/jacobs, 157 scenes, 19 groups). Each has its own README and a
readable page. No inference was used for any of them.

Catalogue. probe/catalogue maps every hand group in the three references onto 36
situation entries, with an answer key per corpus and one recurrence rule applied
to all three. classify.py assigns a scene one entry or none, leave-one-corpus-
out; score.py checks it against the key, with a self-test on random labels.

Why clustering is out: hand-written predicaments, embedded and clustered exactly
as the model's were, agree with the hand grouping at ARI 0.05 — no better than
the 14B text's 0.07. Better rewriting cannot rescue it. Embeddings cannot even
shortlist: the hand label is the nearest entry 13% of the time and in the top 8
half the time.

The classification runs are not here. The dev and test runs are pre-registered
in probe/catalogue/README.md with the bar set beforehand, and are blocked on the
inference host, whose GPU has fallen off the PCIe bus three times. The 30-scene
partial output in out/ is not a result.

Review page. The situation review is now a browser page rather than JSON edited
by hand (review_page.py, review_page_logic.cjs with Node tests, format schema
v2). It has never been rendered in a real browser.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014BygvsUXV9eU6oHkTCkKZ1

tools/story-to-pack/probe/v2/claude/batches/b01.json

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+[
+{"chunk":44,"story":6,"summary":"A young man contrives to speak to a well-dressed young woman on a park bench; she invites him to sit and talk.","predicament":"Someone engineers a meeting with a stranger they have watched, and is unexpectedly welcomed."},
+{"chunk":45,"story":6,"summary":"A young woman rebukes a stranger's familiar flirtation, then asks him about the passing crowd and hints she is above them.","predicament":"Someone misjudges a stranger's station, is corrected, and must start the acquaintance again."},
+{"chunk":46,"story":6,"summary":"A young woman claims a famous name and weariness of wealth; the stranger, curious, catches an inconsistency in her account.","predicament":"Someone builds an impressive story about themselves and a listener notices a detail that does not fit."},
+{"chunk":47,"story":6,"summary":"The woman explains away her slip as a fashion, says she could love a lowly worker, and asks the stranger's occupation.","predicament":"Someone repairs their story, then invites the other to declare what they are."},
+{"chunk":48,"story":6,"summary":"The man says he is a cashier across the street; the woman hurries away, telling him her car waits at the corner.","predicament":"Each claims a position that suits the other's expectation, and the meeting is broken off."},
+{"chunk":49,"story":6,"summary":"Told to wait, the man follows the woman instead, and watches her take her place at the cashier's desk she described.","predicament":"Someone disobeys an instruction and discovers the other's grand account was invented."},
+{"chunk":50,"story":6,"summary":"The man drops the woman's book on the grass, steps into the waiting automobile and orders his chauffeur to his club.","predicament":"Someone learns another's pretence and quietly withdraws, their own greater one never discovered."},
+{"chunk":51,"story":7,"summary":"A city breeds a tribe of onlookers who gather in a ring around any accident or oddity, however trivial.","predicament":"People crowd to watch other people's misfortunes, making a pastime of them."},
+{"chunk":52,"story":7,"summary":"Two devoted onlookers meet across the body of an injured man, and one falls in love as the other shoves through the crowd.","predicament":"Two people recognise each other by a shared appetite that everyone else finds distasteful."},
+{"chunk":53,"story":7,"summary":"The two onlookers remain after the crowd goes, staring frankly at each other's physical defects without speaking.","predicament":"Two people court each other by the only manners they know, which others would find rude."},
+{"chunk":54,"story":7,"summary":"On a dull day the two fight into a crowd watching a sign-painter, and the man offers to show her a rarer sight.","predicament":"Someone courts another by offering the one thing they both value, however small."},
+{"chunk":55,"story":7,"summary":"The pair share an injury, a stakeout and three days on a plank, and pledge themselves as a policeman drives them away.","predicament":"Two people build a shared life entirely out of a habit that others move them along for."},
+{"chunk":56,"story":7,"summary":"A wedding is set, the church filled, and outside the crowd of onlookers presses and fights to see the couple arrive.","predicament":"Someone's private occasion becomes the spectacle that a crowd has come to feed on."},
+{"chunk":57,"story":7,"summary":"The couple never arrive; they are dragged from the crowd, trampled, having joined it to watch themselves be married.","predicament":"Someone's lifelong habit makes them miss the one occasion that was theirs."},
+{"chunk":58,"story":8,"summary":"A lawyer hands a young heir a thousand dollars and tells him he must render a full account of how he spends it.","predicament":"Someone receives an awkward sum on condition they explain exactly what they did with it."},
+{"chunk":59,"story":8,"summary":"The heir tells a club acquaintance that the whole fortune went elsewhere, and mentions a quiet ward left only a ring.","predicament":"Someone passed over by a will laughs it off, and notices another was treated worse."},
+{"chunk":60,"story":8,"summary":"The acquaintance lists worthy uses for the money, then says the heir will only buy a dancer a jewel.","predicament":"Someone asks advice and is told, insultingly, exactly what they are expected to do."},
+{"chunk":61,"story":8,"summary":"The heir offers a dancer a jewel and she barely attends; he then asks a driver and a street seller what they would do.","predicament":"Someone tests a cheap intention against the people around them, and finds nobody impressed."},
+{"chunk":62,"story":8,"summary":"Learning the ward received nothing, the heir gives her the thousand dollars, saying a late amendment to the will provided it.","predicament":"Someone gives away their whole share disguised as another's due, so that it cannot be refused."},
+{"chunk":63,"story":8,"summary":"The heir tells the ward he loves her, is refused, and writes an account naming the money as a debt of happiness.","predicament":"Someone who has just given everything away is turned down, and says nothing of what they did."},
+{"chunk":64,"story":8,"summary":"A codicil promises fifty thousand if the money was spent unselfishly; the heir tears up the account that would prove it.","predicament":"Someone can claim a fortune only by revealing a kindness, and destroys the proof instead."},
+{"chunk":65,"story":9,"summary":"A farmer's son becomes a celebrated city lawyer, remade by the city into an impeccable and narrow gentleman.","predicament":"Someone who climbed out of a humble start is reshaped by the place that rewarded them."},
+{"chunk":66,"story":9,"summary":"The lawyer crowns his rise by marrying a woman of the oldest family, cold and high above every other climber.","predicament":"Someone's greatest success is a marriage they must keep proving themselves worthy of."},
+{"chunk":67,"story":9,"summary":"The wife finds a letter from her husband's farming mother and announces they will visit, asking whether the farm entertains.","predicament":"Someone's hidden origins are discovered by the person they most feared would see them."},
+{"chunk":68,"story":9,"summary":"They arrive at the country station, where the husband's brother jeers cheerfully and is silenced by the wife's appearance.","predicament":"Someone brings a grand partner home, where the old familiarity and the new grandeur cannot mix."},
+{"chunk":69,"story":9,"summary":"The old countryside takes hold of the husband, and his wife beside him begins to seem remote and unreal.","predicament":"Someone returning to where they came from feels the person beside them turn into a stranger."},
+{"chunk":70,"story":9,"summary":"On the porch the husband throws off his manners, pulls off his father's boots and challenges his brother to wrestle.","predicament":"Someone sheds the manner they built, in front of the one person it was built for."},
+{"chunk":71,"story":9,"summary":"The husband wrestles, chases his sister with an insect, dances and clowns, while his wife sits silent and unreadable.","predicament":"Someone lets themselves go completely, watched in silence by the person who can ruin them."},
+{"chunk":72,"story":9,"summary":"The wife retires; her husband follows, expecting condemnation, and she begins by saying she thought she married a gentleman.","predicament":"Someone waits for the judgement they are sure they have earned."},
+{"chunk":73,"story":9,"summary":"The sentence ends differently: the wife says she finds she married something better, and asks her husband to kiss her.","predicament":"Someone braced for rejection is accepted for exactly what they were ashamed of."},
+{"chunk":74,"story":10,"summary":"A young man disinherited for disobeying his uncle spends his last coin and takes a park bench with nothing left.","predicament":"Someone loses everything for refusing to obey, and has nowhere to go."},
+{"chunk":75,"story":10,"summary":"On the bench a ragged stranger tells the ruined man that tomorrow he inherits millions, and that he is afraid.","predicament":"Someone at their lowest meets a stranger terrified by the good fortune about to arrive."},
+{"chunk":76,"story":10,"summary":"The stranger explains he is a cast-off nephew summoned back to be heir, and begs the price of a drink.","predicament":"Someone recounts their fall to a stranger and asks them for money they do not have."},
+{"chunk":77,"story":10,"summary":"The stranger panics, terrified that some accident will kill him in the hours before he can claim the fortune.","predicament":"Someone about to receive everything is paralysed by fear of losing it in the meantime."},
+{"chunk":78,"story":10,"summary":"The ruined man calms the stranger, uses his standing at a hotel bar to get him food, and eats none himself.","predicament":"Someone spends the last of their credit on a stranger rather than on themselves."},
+{"chunk":79,"story":10,"summary":"They take neighbouring benches; the stranger promises to get the ruined man a job once his fortune arrives.","predicament":"Someone is promised help by a person whose fortune has not yet arrived."},
+{"chunk":80,"story":10,"summary":"At the lawyer's office next morning the stranger is told his uncle has reconsidered and will not take him back.","predicament":"Someone arrives to claim what they were promised and is told it has been withdrawn."},
+{"chunk":81,"story":10,"summary":"The stranger walks out steadily cursing his uncle; the lawyer then tells the ruined man his own uncle relents, and he faints.","predicament":"Someone stood firm through ruin and collapses at the news that it is over."},
+{"chunk":82,"story":11,"summary":"A writer explains that editors discard manuscripts claiming to be true, and that fiction is held in more esteem than fact.","predicament":"Someone works in a trade where the truth is the least welcome thing they can offer."},
+{"chunk":83,"story":11,"summary":"A storekeeper's son comes to the city to write, carrying two grand historical manuscripts and a small local reputation.","predicament":"Someone arrives in a larger place with work that impressed the small one they left."},
+{"chunk":84,"story":11,"summary":"The older writer lodges the newcomer, tests him with an assignment he refuses, and the two live cheaply and happily.","predicament":"Someone takes a newcomer in hand and is pleased when they refuse the obvious advice."},
+{"chunk":85,"story":11,"summary":"The newcomer's love stories come back rejected; the older writer finds them well made but empty of living substance.","predicament":"Someone's work is correct in every part and lifeless, and they cannot see why."},
+{"chunk":86,"story":11,"summary":"Told he must fall in love before he can write it, the newcomer does, and is wrecked by a careless young woman.","predicament":"Someone takes advice to feel a thing for themselves, and it costs them more than expected."},
+{"chunk":87,"story":11,"summary":"The newcomer writes the story while the feeling is on him; it is sentimental drivel, and all his craft has vanished.","predicament":"Someone writes straight from feeling and produces the worst work they have ever done."},
+{"chunk":88,"story":11,"summary":"After recovering, the newcomer is worshipped by another woman he only mildly likes, and sits down to write again.","predicament":"Someone is loved fiercely by a person they do not love, and uses it."},
+{"chunk":89,"story":11,"summary":"The new story is brilliant; the newcomer says an artist must be a cad, tears it up and goes home to his father's store.","predicament":"Someone finds they can only succeed by using another's feeling, and refuses the success."}
+]