Add story-to-pack research and a structured situation review

Research toward building a content pack from a story corpus, kept on its own
branch and independent of the game. Records the selection experiments against
blind labels, and settles selection as gate G2 followed by a human review:
review.py writes REVIEW.md and a review.json form, apply_review.py checks the
filled form and writes situations.json for the next stage.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01C6UDQ9o6L6Ey173U7XVou6

tools/story-to-pack/probe/tune_gate2.py

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+"""Choose G2's thresholds on every labelled cluster so far (SELECTION.md, "A size-invariant gate").
+
+  python3 tune_gate2.py        # writes gate2-tuning.json and gate2-frozen.json
+"""
+import itertools, json, pathlib
+import gate2 as g
+
+# Guard: G2's S1 and old S6 must reproduce the first gate's signals.
+dev_sig = json.loads(pathlib.Path('signals-dev.json').read_text())
+dev_cand = json.loads(pathlib.Path('candidates-dev.json').read_text())
+for cid, m in dev_cand.items():
+    s = g.signals(m)
+    assert abs(s['S1'] - dev_sig[cid]['S1']) < 1e-3 and abs(s['S6_old'] - dev_sig[cid]['S6']) < 1e-3, cid
+
+rows = []
+for name in ('dev', 'test'):
+    cand = json.loads(pathlib.Path(f'candidates-{name}.json').read_text())
+    lab = json.loads(pathlib.Path(f'labels-{name}.json').read_text())
+    for cid, m in cand.items():
+        rows.append(dict(g.signals(m), id=cid, label=lab[cid]['label']))
+rmap = json.loads(pathlib.Path('recover-map.json').read_text())
+rlab = json.loads(pathlib.Path('labels-recover.json').read_text())
+for rid, e in rmap.items():
+    rows.append(dict(g.signals(e['members']), id=rid, label=rlab[rid]['label']))
+pathlib.Path('gate2-tuning.json').write_text(json.dumps(rows, indent=1))
+
+def deciles(key):
+    v = sorted(r[key] for r in rows)
+    return [None] + [v[int(len(v) * q / 10)] for q in range(1, 10)]
+
+grid = itertools.product(deciles('S1'), [None, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5], deciles('MMIN'),
+                         [None, 0.25, 0.30, 0.35, 0.40, 0.50, 0.60])
+best = None
+for s1, z1, mmin, w in grid:
+    gate = {'S1': s1, 'Z1': z1, 'MMIN': mmin, 'W': w}
+    acc = [r for r in rows if g.g2_passes(r, gate)]
+    if not acc: continue
+    n1 = sum(r['label'] >= 1 for r in acc)
+    if n1 / len(acc) < 0.85: continue
+    key = (n1, sum(r['label'] == 2 for r in acc), -sum(v is not None for v in gate.values()))
+    if best is None or key > best[0]:
+        best = (key, gate)
+
+gate = best[1]
+pathlib.Path('gate2-frozen.json').write_text(json.dumps(gate, indent=1))
+
+def band(size):
+    return '<=12' if size <= 12 else ('13-25' if size <= 25 else '>=26')
+
+def report(label, accept):
+    acc = [r for r in rows if accept(r)]
+    n1 = sum(r['label'] >= 1 for r in acc)
+    n2 = sum(r['label'] == 2 for r in acc)
+    return f'{label:14} accepted {len(acc):3}  label>=1 {n1:3}  P1+ {n1 / len(acc) if acc else 0:.2f}  label2 {n2}'
+
+print(f'tuning set: {len(rows)} clusters, {sum(r["label"] >= 1 for r in rows)} labelled >=1, '
+      f'{sum(r["label"] == 2 for r in rows)} labelled 2')
+print('CHOSEN G2:', gate)
+print(report('all', lambda r: True))
+print(report('old gate', g.old_passes))
+print(report('G2', lambda r: g.g2_passes(r, gate)))
+print('\nby size band:')
+for b in ('<=12', '13-25', '>=26'):
+    sub = [r for r in rows if band(r['size']) == b]
+    print(f'  {b}: {len(sub)} clusters, {sum(r["label"] >= 1 for r in sub)} labelled >=1')
+    for label, accept in (('old gate', g.old_passes), ('G2', lambda r: g.g2_passes(r, gate))):
+        acc = [r for r in sub if accept(r)]
+        n1 = sum(r['label'] >= 1 for r in acc)
+        print(f'    {label:9} accepted {len(acc):3}  P1+ {n1 / len(acc) if acc else 0:.2f}')
+print('\nG2 rejects, labelled >=1, with the failing term:')
+for r in rows:
+    if r['label'] >= 1 and not g.g2_passes(r, gate):
+        why = [k for k in ('S1', 'Z1', 'MMIN') if gate[k] is not None and r[k] < gate[k]]
+        if gate['W'] is not None and r['W'] >= gate['W']: why.append(f"W({r['W_word']})")
+        print(f"  {r['id']} size {r['size']:2} label {r['label']}  {' '.join(why) or 'candidate conditions'}")