TheLadder/tools/story-to-pack/recovered/probe3.mjs

// Does a feedback loop converge? Start from randomised magnitudes, then repair
// whatever the checks complain about, one diagnosis at a time.
import { frontier } from '../../../content/frontier/index.js';
import { validatePack } from '../../../src/engine/validate.js';
import { play, sweep, strategies } from '../../../test/fixtures/strategies.js';

const clone = (o) => JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(o));
const ri = (lo, hi) => lo + Math.floor(Math.random() * (hi - lo + 1));

function seedPack(base) {
  const pack = { ...base, events: clone(base.events), upkeep: clone(base.upkeep) };
  for (const e of pack.events) {
    if (e.weight !== undefined && e.weight < 5000) e.weight = ri(20, 120);
    if (e.cooldown !== undefined) e.cooldown = ri(2, 12);
    for (const o of e.options ?? []) {
      for (const r of o.requires ?? []) {
        if (typeof r.value === 'number' && !/^(turn|stage|flags)/.test(r.path)) r.value = ri(5, 60);
      }
      for (const f of o.effects ?? []) {
        if (f.op !== 'add' || typeof f.value !== 'number') continue;
        const mag = f.path === 'money' ? ri(1, 25) : ri(1, 12);
        f.value = Math.sign(f.value) * mag;
      }
    }
  }
  return pack;
}

/** Full diagnosis, not just the first failure — the repair needs all of it. */
function diagnose(pack) {
  const problems = [];
  if (!validatePack(pack).valid) return [{ kind: 'invalid' }];
  const { firedEvents, offeredOptions } = sweep(pack, { seeds: 4, turns: 200 });
  for (const e of pack.events) {
    if (!firedEvents.has(e.id)) problems.push({ kind: 'deadEvent', id: e.id });
    for (const o of e.options ?? []) {
      if (!offeredOptions.has(`${e.id}.${o.id}`)) {
        problems.push({ kind: 'deadOption', event: e.id, option: o.id });
      }
    }
  }
  for (const s of Object.keys(strategies)) {
    let red = 0, n = 0; const counts = new Map();
    play(pack, { strategy: s, seed: 'probe', turns: 150, visit: ({ state, turn }) => {
      n++; if (state.money < 0) red++;
      counts.set(turn.event.id, (counts.get(turn.event.id) ?? 0) + 1);
    }});
    if (red / n >= 0.25) problems.push({ kind: 'broke', strategy: s, share: red / n });
    const [id, c] = [...counts.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0];
    if (c / n >= 0.25) problems.push({ kind: 'dominates', id, share: c / n });
  }
  return problems;
}

function repair(pack, problems) {
  const next = { ...pack, events: clone(pack.events), upkeep: clone(pack.upkeep) };
  const event = (id) => next.events.find((e) => e.id === id);
  for (const p of problems) {
    if (p.kind === 'deadOption') {
      const o = event(p.event)?.options.find((x) => x.id === p.option);
      for (const r of o?.requires ?? []) {
        if (typeof r.value === 'number' && !/^(turn|stage|flags)/.test(r.path)) {
          r.value = Math.max(1, Math.floor(r.value * 0.7));   // lower the door
        }
      }
    }
    if (p.kind === 'deadEvent') {
      const e = event(p.id);
      if (!e) continue;
      if (e.cooldown) e.cooldown = Math.max(1, Math.floor(e.cooldown * 0.7));
      if (e.weight !== undefined && e.weight < 5000) e.weight = Math.round(e.weight * 1.6);
      for (const r of e.requires ?? []) {
        if (typeof r.value === 'number' && !/^(turn|stage|flags)/.test(r.path)) {
          r.value = Math.max(1, Math.floor(r.value * 0.7));
        }
      }
    }
    if (p.kind === 'dominates') {
      const e = event(p.id);
      if (!e) continue;
      if (e.weight !== undefined && e.weight < 5000) e.weight = Math.max(5, Math.round(e.weight * 0.6));
      e.cooldown = Math.max(2, (e.cooldown ?? 1) + 2);
    }
    if (p.kind === 'broke') {
      // Lift the floor: the settlement is the pack's own lever on the baseline.
      for (const u of next.upkeep) {
        if (!/Settlement|pay/i.test(u.label ?? '')) continue;
        for (const f of u.effects) if (f.path === 'money') f.value = Math.round(f.value * 1.15) + 1;
      }
    }
  }
  return next;
}

let converged = 0; const N = 12; const historyLens = [];
for (let run = 0; run < N; run++) {
  let pack = seedPack(frontier);
  let iterations = 0;
  let problems = diagnose(pack);
  while (problems.length > 0 && iterations < 40) {
    pack = repair(pack, problems);
    problems = diagnose(pack);
    iterations++;
  }
  if (problems.length === 0) { converged++; historyLens.push(iterations); }
}
console.log(`repair loop converged: ${converged}/${N}`);
if (historyLens.length) {
  console.log('iterations to clean:', historyLens.sort((a,b)=>a-b).join(', '));
  console.log('median:', historyLens[Math.floor(historyLens.length/2)]);
}