TheLadder/tools/story-to-pack/recovered/probe2.mjs

// Same randomised magnitudes, but gates DERIVED from what a pack can actually
// reach rather than picked: for each gated path, simulate the ungated growth
// available and place thresholds inside that range.
import { frontier } from '../../../content/frontier/index.js';
import { validatePack } from '../../../src/engine/validate.js';
import { play, sweep, strategies } from '../../../test/fixtures/strategies.js';

const clone = (o) => JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(o));
const ri = (lo, hi) => lo + Math.floor(Math.random() * (hi - lo + 1));

function randomizeMagnitudes(base) {
  const pack = { ...base, events: clone(base.events) };
  for (const e of pack.events) {
    if (e.weight !== undefined && e.weight < 5000) e.weight = ri(20, 120);
    if (e.cooldown !== undefined) e.cooldown = ri(2, 12);
    for (const o of e.options ?? []) {
      for (const f of o.effects ?? []) {
        if (f.op !== 'add' || typeof f.value !== 'number') continue;
        const mag = f.path === 'money' ? ri(1, 25) : ri(1, 12);
        f.value = Math.sign(f.value) * mag;   // direction kept, magnitude random
      }
    }
  }
  return pack;
}

/** Ceiling actually reachable on a path, measured by playing for it. */
function reachable(pack, path) {
  const gain = (o) => (o.option.effects ?? [])
    .filter((e) => e.path === path && e.op === 'add').reduce((s, e) => s + e.value, 0);
  let best = 0;
  for (let seed = 0; seed < 3; seed++) {
    const st = play(pack, { strategy: 'random', seed: `r${seed}`, turns: 120 });
    void st;
    let peak = 0;
    play(pack, { strategy: 'random', seed: `r${seed}`, turns: 120, visit: ({ state, turn }) => {
      const v = path.split('.').reduce((o, k) => o?.[k], state);
      if (typeof v === 'number' && v > peak) peak = v;
      void gain; void turn;
    }});
    best = Math.max(best, peak);
  }
  return best;
}

function deriveGates(pack) {
  // Two passes: measure with gates removed, then place them in-range.
  const stripped = { ...pack, events: clone(pack.events) };
  const gatedPaths = new Set();
  for (const e of stripped.events) for (const o of e.options ?? []) {
    o.requires = (o.requires ?? []).filter((r) => {
      const numericStat = typeof r.value === 'number' && !/^(turn|stage)/.test(r.path);
      if (numericStat) gatedPaths.add(r.path);
      return !numericStat;
    });
    if (o.requires.length === 0) delete o.requires;
  }
  const ceiling = {};
  for (const p of gatedPaths) ceiling[p] = reachable(stripped, p);

  const out = { ...pack, events: clone(pack.events) };
  for (const e of out.events) for (const o of e.options ?? []) {
    for (const r of o.requires ?? []) {
      if (typeof r.value !== 'number' || /^(turn|stage)/.test(r.path)) continue;
      const cap = ceiling[r.path] ?? 30;
      // Place the gate in the reachable band: a door you can open, not a wall.
      r.value = Math.max(1, Math.round(cap * (0.25 + Math.random() * 0.45)));
    }
  }
  return out;
}

function score(pack) {
  if (!validatePack(pack).valid) return { ok: false, why: 'invalid' };
  try {
    const { firedEvents, offeredOptions } = sweep(pack, { seeds: 4, turns: 200 });
    const allE = pack.events.map((e) => e.id);
    const allO = pack.events.flatMap((e) => e.options.map((o) => `${e.id}.${o.id}`));
    if (allE.some((i) => !firedEvents.has(i))) return { ok: false, why: 'dead events' };
    if (allO.some((i) => !offeredOptions.has(i))) return { ok: false, why: 'dead options' };
    for (const s of Object.keys(strategies)) {
      let red = 0, n = 0; const counts = new Map();
      play(pack, { strategy: s, seed: 'probe', turns: 150, visit: ({ state, turn }) => {
        n++; if (state.money < 0) red++;
        counts.set(turn.event.id, (counts.get(turn.event.id) ?? 0) + 1);
      }});
      if (red / n >= 0.25) return { ok: false, why: 'stuck below zero' };
      if (Math.max(...counts.values()) / n >= 0.25) return { ok: false, why: 'one situation dominates' };
    }
    return { ok: true };
  } catch (err) { return { ok: false, why: 'threw: ' + err.message.slice(0, 40) }; }
}

const tally = {}; let pass = 0; const N = 40;
for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
  const r = score(deriveGates(randomizeMagnitudes(frontier)));
  if (r.ok) pass++; else tally[r.why] = (tally[r.why] ?? 0) + 1;
}
console.log(`gates derived from reachable range: ${pass}/${N} passed`);
for (const [why, n] of Object.entries(tally).sort((a,b)=>b[1]-a[1])) console.log('   ', n, why);