v1.1 WP-B.1: diagnose independent long-term memory retention

Diagnostic only; no memory behaviour changes.

- tools/memory_diagnostic.py: planted-fact isolation checks, the four-stage
  diagnosis (created / retained / ranked / injected) with a verdict, a
  production-ranking replica, deterministic summariser/embedder/narrator
  stubs and seven scenarios (default, past capacity, pinned, low top_k,
  long-block early/late, lineage control)
- tools/v11_b1_memory.py: CLI for the scenarios and for diagnosing a copy of
  a finished real campaign
- tools/m11_long_run.py: opt-in --independent-fact mode with per-turn
  isolation tracking and the recovered_through_memory_independent verdict;
  M04 verdicts unchanged
- tests: diagnostic stages, eviction, creation window, ranking, lineage and
  authority controls; two strict xfails record the diagnosed retention and
  creation defects for WP-B.2 to flip
- planning/reports/v1.1/V1.1-WP-B1-REPORT.md

First failing stage: ranking (real model); retention past capacity and
creation for early facts in long blocks (deterministic, same on v1.0.0).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VvegagkhuCZoFPdv4M1egY

backend/tests/test_v11_b1_long_run_verdict.py

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+"""v1.1 WP-B.1: the long run's `recovered_through_memory_independent` verdict.
+
+The new verdict must never be reported when anything other than memory could
+have carried the fact. Each precondition is named when it fails. The existing M04
+verdicts keep their meaning exactly.
+
+    python -m pytest tests/test_v11_b1_long_run_verdict.py -v
+"""
+
+import pytest
+
+from tools import m11_long_run as lr
+
+GOOD = {
+    "independent_planted_depth": 3,
+    "planted_turn_outside_history": True,
+    "absent_from_state": True,
+    "absent_from_summary": True,
+    "absent_from_knowledge": True,
+    "absent_from_later_narration": True,
+    "memory_covering_planting_carries_fact": True,
+    "memory_forgotten": False,
+    "memory_injected": True,
+}
+
+
+def test_every_precondition_and_an_injected_memory_is_the_new_verdict():
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict(GOOD) == "recovered_through_memory_independent"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("name", lr.INDEPENDENT_PRECONDITIONS)
+def test_a_failed_precondition_is_named_and_never_a_recovery(name):
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict({**GOOD, name: False}) == f"precondition_failed:{name}"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("name", lr.INDEPENDENT_PRECONDITIONS)
+def test_an_unmeasured_precondition_is_unknown_not_a_pass(name):
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict({**GOOD, name: None}) == f"precondition_unknown:{name}"
+
+
+def test_no_planted_depth_is_unknown():
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict({**GOOD, "independent_planted_depth": None}) == \
+        "precondition_unknown:planted_depth"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("change, verdict", [
+    ({"memory_covering_planting_carries_fact": False}, "not_recovered:not_created"),
+    ({"memory_forgotten": True}, "not_recovered:evicted"),
+    ({"memory_injected": False}, "not_recovered:not_injected"),
+])
+def test_the_failing_memory_stage_is_named(change, verdict):
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict({**GOOD, **change}) == verdict
+
+
+def test_preconditions_are_judged_before_memory():
+    """A carried fact disqualifies the run even when memory also failed."""
+    both = {**GOOD, "absent_from_state": False, "memory_covering_planting_carries_fact": False}
+    assert lr._independent_memory_verdict(both) == "precondition_failed:absent_from_state"
+
+
+def test_the_fact_is_matched_as_whole_words():
+    assert lr._mentions_fact("She hid the amber Sundial.")
+    assert lr._mentions_fact("a cracked TEAPOT on the shelf")
+    assert not lr._mentions_fact("teapots")  # a different word, not the fact's
+    assert not lr._mentions_fact("the sun dialled down")
+
+
+def test_the_m04_verdicts_are_unchanged():
+    base = {"planted_turn_in_history_window": False, "in_memories_section": False,
+            "in_summary_section": False, "in_state_section": False}
+    assert lr._m04_verdict(base) == "not_recovered"
+    assert lr._m04_verdict({**base, "in_state_section": True}) == "recovered_through_state_only"
+    assert lr._m04_verdict({**base, "in_memories_section": True}) == \
+        "recovered_through_memory_or_summary"
+    assert lr._m04_verdict({**base, "planted_turn_in_history_window": True}) == \
+        "precondition_not_met"
+
+
+def test_the_independent_fact_is_not_in_any_imported_knowledge_file():
+    for text in (lr.CANON_MD, lr.REFERENCE_MD, lr.INSPIRATION_MD, *lr.BEATS):
+        assert not lr._mentions_fact(text)
+
+
+def test_the_planting_text_and_recall_carry_the_fact():
+    assert lr._mentions_fact(lr.INDEPENDENT_FACT_TEXT)
+    assert lr._mentions_fact(lr.INDEPENDENT_RECALL_TEXT)