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Jesse
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/**
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* Component 18 — Balance simulation harness.
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*
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* Dev-side only. Runs many seeded games and reports the numbers that the provisional values in
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* docs/rules/card-reference.md were guessed at. See architecture/components.md §2 D.18.
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*
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* The point is narrow and worth stating: this can tell you whether the ARITHMETIC of the game
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* works — whether targets are reachable, whether Crew Trays bottleneck, whether collisions fire at
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* a sane rate. It cannot tell you whether the game is any fun. Only a table can do that.
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*
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* Run with: node src/sim/harness.ts [games] [length]
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*/
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import { pump } from '../engine/advance.ts';
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import { collectiveRevenueFloor, lengthProfile } from '../engine/content.ts';
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import { createGame } from '../engine/setup.ts';
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import type { GameLength } from '../engine/content.ts';
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import type { GameConfig, GameMode } from '../engine/state.ts';
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import type { BotPolicy, PlayOutcome } from './bot.ts';
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import { developerBot, playGame, randomBot } from './bot.ts';
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import type { GameStats } from './stats.ts';
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import { formatAggregate, summarize } from './stats.ts';
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export type SimOptions = {
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games: number;
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length: GameLength;
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mode: GameMode;
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players: string[];
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policy: BotPolicy;
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};
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export type SimReport = {
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policy: string;
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games: number;
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finished: number;
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wins: number;
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revenuePerPlayer: Stats;
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revenuePerPlayerPerDay: Stats;
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collisionsPerGame: Stats;
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trainsScheduled: Stats;
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cardsPlayed: Stats;
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daysPlayed: Stats;
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outcomeReasons: Record<string, number>;
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/** Per-game detail, for end-of-game statistics and anomaly detection. */
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perGame: GameStats[];
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};
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export type Stats = { min: number; max: number; mean: number; median: number };
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function statsOf(xs: number[]): Stats {
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if (xs.length === 0) return { min: 0, max: 0, mean: 0, median: 0 };
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const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b);
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const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
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return {
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min: sorted[0]!,
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max: sorted[sorted.length - 1]!,
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mean: xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length,
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median:
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sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1]! + sorted[mid]!) / 2 : sorted[mid]!,
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};
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}
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function configFor(mode: GameMode, length: GameLength): GameConfig {
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return {
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mode,
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victory: 'highestAfterDays',
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length,
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optionalRules: {
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reducedVisibility: false,
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sisterTrains: false,
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employeeRotation: false,
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emergencyToolbox: false,
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},
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};
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}
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export function simulate(opts: SimOptions): SimReport {
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const results: PlayOutcome[] = [];
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const stats: GameStats[] = [];
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for (let i = 0; i < opts.games; i++) {
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const seed = 1000 + i * 7919; // a prime stride, so seeds do not correlate
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const s = createGame({
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id: `sim-${i}`,
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seed,
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config: configFor(opts.mode, opts.length),
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playerNames: opts.players,
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});
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const r = playGame(s, opts.policy, pump);
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results.push(r);
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stats.push(summarize(seed, r.events, r.intents, s));
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}
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const finished = results.filter((r) => r.finished);
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const perPlayer = finished.flatMap((r) => r.revenue);
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const days = finished.map((r) => Math.max(1, r.days - 1));
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const perDay = finished.flatMap((r) =>
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r.revenue.map((v) => v / Math.max(1, r.days - 1)),
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);
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const reasons: Record<string, number> = {};
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for (const r of finished) {
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const key = r.outcome ? `${r.outcome.result}/${r.outcome.reason}` : 'none';
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reasons[key] = (reasons[key] ?? 0) + 1;
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}
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return {
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policy: opts.policy.name,
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games: opts.games,
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finished: finished.length,
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wins: finished.filter((r) => r.outcome?.result === 'win').length,
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revenuePerPlayer: statsOf(perPlayer),
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revenuePerPlayerPerDay: statsOf(perDay),
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collisionsPerGame: statsOf(finished.map((r) => r.collisions)),
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trainsScheduled: statsOf(finished.map((r) => r.trainsScheduled)),
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cardsPlayed: statsOf(finished.map((r) => r.cardsPlayed)),
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daysPlayed: statsOf(days),
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outcomeReasons: reasons,
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perGame: stats,
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};
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Reporting
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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const f = (n: number): string => n.toFixed(1).padStart(6);
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function line(label: string, s: Stats): string {
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return ` ${label.padEnd(26)} ${f(s.mean)} ${f(s.median)} ${f(s.min)} ${f(s.max)}`;
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}
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export function formatReport(r: SimReport, length: GameLength, players: number): string {
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const profile = lengthProfile(length);
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const out: string[] = [];
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out.push(`\n=== ${r.policy} bot · ${length} · ${players}p · ${r.games} games ===`);
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out.push(` finished ${r.finished}/${r.games} wins ${r.wins}/${r.finished}`);
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out.push(` ${''.padEnd(26)} mean median min max`);
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out.push(line('revenue per player', r.revenuePerPlayer));
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out.push(line('revenue per player per Day', r.revenuePerPlayerPerDay));
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out.push(line('collisions per game', r.collisionsPerGame));
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out.push(line('trains scheduled', r.trainsScheduled));
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out.push(line('cards played', r.cardsPlayed));
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out.push(line('days played', r.daysPlayed));
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out.push('\n outcomes:');
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for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(r.outcomeReasons).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])) {
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out.push(` ${k.padEnd(28)} ${v}`);
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}
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// The provisional numbers this exists to test.
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out.push('\n against the provisional targets:');
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out.push(` target ${profile.target} over ${profile.days} Days`);
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out.push(
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` predicted ~5-6 revenue/player/Day steady state; observed mean ` +
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`${r.revenuePerPlayerPerDay.mean.toFixed(1)}`,
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);
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out.push(
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` collective floor (competitive) ${collectiveRevenueFloor(players, profile.days)}` +
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`; observed total mean ${(r.revenuePerPlayer.mean * players).toFixed(1)}`,
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);
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return out.join('\n');
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// CLI
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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const isMain = process.argv[1]?.endsWith('harness.ts') ?? false;
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if (isMain) {
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const games = Number(process.argv[2] ?? 200);
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const length = (process.argv[3] ?? 'standard') as GameLength;
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for (const policy of [developerBot, randomBot(12345)]) {
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const report = simulate({
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games,
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length,
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mode: 'solitaire',
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players: ['bot'],
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policy,
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});
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console.log(formatReport(report, length, 1));
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if (policy === developerBot) console.log(formatAggregate(report.perGame));
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}
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}
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